Black swans, nonlinear history and financial markets

Black swans, nonlinear history and financial markets

The world is changing. Investors can sense it. Pontificators are out, well, pontificating. While very few things are entirely certain, there are dominant threads emerging. The old world of the past decade is drawing to an end (thankfully). The next decade will be dominated by a few powerful secular themes: A shift from deflationary threats […]

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Q2 2020 Global Debt outlook: A quarter unlike any other

Q2 2020 Global Debt outlook: A quarter unlike any other

The first quarter of this year started with expectations of improving global growth and easier financial conditions. It ended with a historic collapse of economic conditions and materially tighter financial conditions in the US, as the coronavirus pandemic spread and intensified. Global markets reacted to the pandemic by building in a risk premium for the […]

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Fortress Russia: An underrated economy poised for a resilient recovery and long-term growth

Fortress Russia: An underrated economy poised for a resilient recovery and long-term growth

In a previous blog, “The coronavirus is proving to be a black swan event — unpredictable and with massive consequences,” we noted that black swan events create consequences, but opportunities for investors can arise from them. We see this as a black swan event that will have profound systemic consequences including a massive competitive shift […]

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A new dashboard to consider for signs of a new market cycle

A new dashboard to consider for signs of a new market cycle

Chuck Noland, Tom Hanks’ character in the movie Cast Away, may have perfectly captured the mood we need to bring to these challenging times, when he said, “I gotta keep breathing. Because tomorrow the sun will rise. Who knows what the tide could bring?” In keeping with that positive, forward-looking mindset, we are initiating our […]

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